Of the three recent elections in India’s neighborhood , the result of the one in Myanmar was most predictable . Nobody expected the status quo to change. And it did not. The sweeping victory of the military proxy Union Solidarity and Development Party ( USDP) was a foregone conclusion. And that precisely will make Myanmar the biggest foreign policy challenge in India’s eastern neighborhood. Because with the military still firmly in power but increasingly loosing out territory to multiple rebel armies, India’s ‘ Look East’ through Northeast will not take off anytime soon.
In Bangladesh, the polls held under the supervision of the Yunus-led interim government returned a sweeping majority for the Bangladesh Nationalist Party. India can surely worry over the unusual rise in the parliamentary presence of the pro-Pakistan Jamaat-e-Islami and its rise as the country’s main opposition may worry India . But the mandarins in Delhi can take some satisfaction from the way the BNP under Prime Minister Tarique Rahman has reciprocated India’s diplomatic outreach to restore bilateral relations after a severe downturn during the eighteen months of the Yunus-led interim regime.
The ban on the Awami League, which prevented it from contesting the February 2026 polls , leaves a huge question mark over Bangladesh’s democracy . India may feel upset over the BNP government formalising the ban through a parliamentary bill , but bilateral engagement on the issue is continuing.
The polls in Nepal , following the ouster of the Oli government, has brought about the most genuine democratic change with the coming to power of a new dispensation that truly reflects the choice of the country’s youth. India , so far used to dealing with the traditional parties like the Nepali Congress, may have to wait a while to adjust , but it should not have much of a problem if PM Balen Shah maintains balance in dealing with India and China.
Little Option in Myanmar
Unlike Nepal and Bangladesh, where India has both time and options , the status quo in Myanmar is likely to leave India with very little elbow room for manoeuvre. In fact, Myanmar may end up as an important theatre of Sino-US rivalry , leaving India caught between the rock and the hard place.
Civil War To Intensify
By all indications, the election has set the stage for resumption of armed hostilities with military supremo Senior General Min Aung Hlaing taking over as President and his hardline loyalists now at the helm of the army.
After the parliament polls, Gen Hlaing stepped down as army chief and put in place a successor Gen Yeh Win Oo, who was until now the Chief of Military Intelligence. Then Hlaing was elected President from among the three Vice-presidents, himself being elevated to one before the contest. The result of the Presidential election was a foregone conclusion, as Gen Hlaing secured 429 out of the 586 parliamentary votes.

Min Aung Hlaing’s taking over as President may apparently seem to mark a transition to a civilian government , but that is just an illusion. There is no doubt the military will remain in full control. The pro-military Union Solidarity & Development Party ( USDP) won a landslide victory in the tightly controlled parliament election held in three phases from December 28 to January 25. Parliament convened last month for the first time since the February 2021 coup and it was evident the new government was just a rubber stamp of the men in uniform.
Apart from the massive crackdown on all sorts of opposition, the military junta had limited the election to only six parties and arbitrarily disqualified forty political organizations from fielding candidates. Among the parties barred from the contest was the Aung Sang Suu Kyi-led National League for Democracy (NLD), which had swept the 2020 polls with a bigger margin than in 2015 and was all set to rule Myanmar for the second successive term.
There was much expectation that if the verdict of the 2020 polls were honoured and the Suu Kyi-led NLD allowed to take power, it would bring about amendments to the 2008 Constitution that guarantees three crucial ministries and one-fourth of the parliamentary seats to the military. During the NLD’s first term, Suu Kyi had given rise to hopes that she would pursue her father Marshal Aung San’s vision of a federal Myanmar when a nationwide ceasefire was followed up by a comprehensive dialogue with multiple ethnic rebel armies who have revolted against central authority and pursued bloody insurgencies for decades. This is what the Burmese military did not want. So it first sabotaged the negotiations by arbitrary violation of ceasefire. Then when the NLD won the 2020 polls, General Hlaing unleashed the coup on the day the NLD was to assume office.
Now after five years , the polls were finally held but only to convince global opinion about restoration of democracy. But the NLD was not even allowed to contest , like the Awami League in neighbouring Bangladesh.
Some say the NLD’s imminent return to power prompted the Feb 2021 military coup on the day the NLD government was to take office. The NLD had rejected overtures from General Hlaing to consider him for Presidency.
Soe Win Purged
Now the military supremo is not merely President but he seems to have packed the top military positions with his trusted loyalists. The most significant was the purge of the the second most powerful man in the Myanmar military , Vice Senior-General Soe Win . Not only was he overlooked for the position of the Chief, but also removed as Vice Chief.
General Ye Win Oo, the chief of the all-powerful military intelligence , took charge as Chief and Lieutenant General Kyaw Swar Lin was named the Vice-Chief in place of Soe Win, who may now be appointed to the newly formed Union Consultative Council. This Council, meant to coordinate security, foreign relations, the peace process and legislative issues, will depend on the President for delineation of its powers and roles.
Min Aung Hlaing has been visibly uncomfortable with Soe Win’s growing popularity within the military rank and file. After the Burmese army suffered a series of battlefield setbacks against ethnic rebel armies in the last two years, there has been a growing demand among military families and ultranationalists monks that Hlaing steps down and hands over command to Soe Win.

Hlaing’s taking over as President and his hardline loyalists taking over the command of the military is bad news for conflict-ravaged Myanmar. One would have expected that a new government would have reached out to the ethnic rebel armies and the exiled National Unity Government for a dialogue to end the festering civil war.
After the NLD government took office in 2015, it declared a nationwide ceasefire and initiated a comprehensive dialogue with the ethnic rebel groups. But neither President Hlaing nor the army topbrass appear to be willing to start a dialogue of any kind. They seem content with the limited deals with two ethnic rebel groups that were pushed through before the elections by heavy-handed Chinese intervention.
New Rebel Alliance
Realising that the new elected government was in no mood for a dialogue, the ethnic rebel groups are gearing up for a fresh round of hostilities. This week, six resistance groups announced the formation of a the Steering Council for the Emergence of a Federal Democratic Union to “advance our ongoing revolution and achieve victory at the earliest possible time” to establish a transitional government.
Its members are the National Unity Government, its legislature the Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw, the Kachin Independence Army, the Karen National Union, the Karenni National Progressive Party and the Chin National Front. The only major rebel group still fighting the Burmese military but not in the Steering Council was the Arakan Army, which now controls much of the coastal Rakhine province.
The Arakan Army was part of the Three Brotherhood Alliance, two of whose constituents , the Kokang MNDAA and the Tang National Liberation Army ( TNLA) have already struck ceasefire deals with the Burmese military under heavy Chinese pressure.
“We are committed to protecting and promoting the diverse identities of all ethnic nationalities residing within member states and units of the Union, and to firmly building a new Federal Democratic Union composed of states that fully guarantee equality among nationalities and right to self-determination,” the announcement by the Steering Council said.
It stated that the armed struggle will continue until the military is defeated, the 2008 Constitution is abolished and a new constitution is put in place, one that “embodies federalism and democratic values” and ensures total civilian control over the military. The Steering Council is surely handicapped because many powerful armed groups – including the Arakan Army, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and United Wa State Army – are not its members.
The Emerging Proxy War
The 2020 Myanmar military coup was the starting point of an emerging proxy war between China and the West. The US Congress responded to the 2021 coup by passing the Burma Act that authorised the President to impose sanctions on ” certain foreign persons (i.e., an individual or entity), including those that (1) knowingly operate in Burma’s defense sector, (2) are responsible for or complicit in undermining Burma’s democratic processes, or (3) are senior leaders in Burma’s military junta.”
Since then, the US intelligence agencies have armed multiple rebel groups fighting the military junta and send mercenaries to fight alongside them. On the other hand, the Chinese came out in strong support of the Burmese military dictatorship , though they may have been initially circumspect about the coup. The Chinese have too much at stake in Myanmar, specially the huge investments made in the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor that links the southwestern Chinese province of Yunnan with the China-funded deep-sea port of Kyaukphyu on Myanmar’s Rakhine coast. With PDF rebels attacking Chinese interests like off-take stations on the Yunnan-Kyaukphyu gas pipeline, Beijing had reasons to feel concerned. Much as China sees the Myanmar corridor as key to its Belt & Road Initiative ( BRI) , the US sees the blocking of this Corridor as key to its strategy of curbing growing Chinese influence . Which explains its growing support for the Myanmar rebel groups . If these groups militarily defeat the Tatmadaw and carve out their own defacto areas of control, the China-Myanmar Corridor cannot be effectively operationalised.
Since using China is out of question and Thailand is far away, Northeast India became the chosen corridor for the western mercenaries for reaching rebel groups like the Kachin Independence Army, Arakan Army and the Chin groups. Sending these mercenaries is part of a strategic effort by Western agencies to arm and equip the rebel groups so that they can defeat the Burmese army Tatmadaw.
The US self proclaimed ‘freedom fighter’ Mathew Vandyke has made it clear in his social media posts that” we are here to teach them (local populations) how to fight “. Vandyke even asserted that ” it takes four to six weeks to do the job” . That means the role of these Western mercenaries , seven now in NIA custody, was primarily to train the rebel fighters in use of new technology like drone warfare and combat communications . Most rebels like the Kachins amd Arakanese are battle-hardened mountain fighters but they needed modern technology like latest combat drones to make a difference.
Vandyke has played similar roles in Libya and Syria and surely in Ukraine — mobilised highly trained Western fighters , mostly former special forces veterans, to train local fighters in latest combat technology. Drones are a special area of focus . VanDyke has picked up some Ukrainian veterans because it helps the US agencies cover their tracks and because the Ukrainians are masters in drone warfare, even sought after now by the Israelis.
With such training, the PDF unleash a fierce swarm drone attack on Myanmar capital Nayphitaw in April 2024. Government offices including military ones were hit and atleast one drone landed not far from the residence of the military junta chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing. As recently as February this year, the Kachin rebels launched combat drones on Myitkina airport in Kachin state, severely damaging an aircraft of the Myanmar National Airways.

Mizo Chief Minister’s Red Flag
Mizoram Chief Minister Pu Lalduhoma first raised the alarm about large number of western mercenaries using his state to sneak into neighbouring Myanmar in a statement before the state assembly in March last year.
He pointed to nearly 2000 Western tourists arriving in Mizoram , very few of who were seen in the state’s usual tourist spots.
Sources in Myanmar’s major rebel groups like the Kachin Independence Army or the Arakan Army and the Chin rebel groups told this writer that ” hundreds of Western fighters” have come and fought alongside them in the last more than two years . They say these Western fighters mostly trained them in drone technology , modern communications and battle planning. ” That has made a huge difference in the battlefield outcomes,” said one rebel commanders, but on condition of strict anonymity.

But Pu Lalduhoma’s assertion have not been borne out by official records. Which is why Indian Home Minister Amit Shah’s clarification becomes relevant . Shah has said the Western mercenaries may have only used Mizoram to enter Myanmar without posing a direct security threat for India not only reframes the whole issue but seeks to dispel undue alarm. However, there is a diplomatic fallout with the Ukraine embassy in India demanding consular access for the six of their nationals now in NIA custody.

Implications for India
There are three reasons why the resumption of full scale hostilities in the Myanmar civil war does not augur well for India.
( a) With fighting likely to escalate, it would become impossible to complete and operationalise the ambitious India-funded connectivity projects through Myanmar.
The Kaladan Multimodal Transport project linking the Indian mainland to the Northeast will be difficult to implement because though the Sittwe port remains in Burmese military control, the rest of the Rakhine province is taken over by the Arakan Army. And beyond Paletwa, where the river stretch of the project ends and the road component leading to Zorinpuii in Mizoram begins, Chin rebel groups are in control.
Similarly , the Golden Trilateral Highway connecting Manipur to Thailand through Myanmar runs through areas under either military or rebel control , with many stretches scene of bitter recent fighting. Apart from substantial funds that India has already sunk into these projects, like the Chabahar port project in Iran, the much-vaunted ‘ Act East’ policy would remain a cliche unless these projects can be operationalised.
(b) there are clear indications that since the marked escalation of the civil war in the last two years following the formation of the Three Brotherhood Alliance, both China and the Western powers, specially the US, has become more and more directly involved in backing local proxies. The Chinese are obviously unusually active in shoring up the dwindling fortunes of the Burmese military Tatmadaw, even sending combat technicians and military advisers under cover of security personnel for Chinese projects. They got the military junta to pass a law allowing Chinese establishments to bring in their own security — and that cover has been used to deploy advisers and technicians , specially drone experts, in support of the Tatmadaw in battle-scarred regions like Rakhine.
The Chinese have also forced several rebel groups like the Kokang-dominated MNDAA and Ta’ang National Liberation Army to strike ceasefire deals with the military junta , even pushing them to sacrifice hard-earned gains like the town of Lashio , which hosted the Tatmadaw’s Northeast Command . After it fell to the MNDAA-TNLA, the Chinese forced the rebels to long negotiations with the junta in the Yunnan capital Kumning. The rebels had to return Lashio to the junta , a development that had an adverse effect on the battling ethnicities.
On the other hand, the Western agencies have been pumping in huge quantity of weapons and also western mercenaries who act as both trainers and battle planners as defacto military advisers. The recent arrest of US mercenary Mathew Aaron Vandyke and six of his Ukranian companions has blown the lid on a sustained covert Western campaign to strengthen rebel groups so that they can militarily defeat the Burmese army. India’s National Investigative Agency ( NIA) has taken them on remand and officials interrogating them have found evidence of them holding training sessions in the last one year with atleast four rebel groups– Arakan Army, Kachin Independence Army, Chin Alliance and People’s Defense Forces ( Sagaing). These mercenaries are also believed to be responsible for smuggling into Myanmar substantial quantities of weapons, specially combat drones in knockdown condition. If these trends continue, Myanmar could soon turn into an Afghanistan in the 1980-90s , where US backed the mujahideens and the Soviets backed a puppet regime in Kabul.
( c) such a scenario could have adverse spillover impact on India’s sensitive Northeast, where many active rebel groups have close connection with Myanmar rebel formations. Weapons meant for the Myanmar groups can find their way to the Northeastern groups .
It was in India’s interest to see peace return to Myanmar and a process of reconciliation leading to a restoration of democracy . If expansion of the Chinese footprint in Myanmar is not what India wants, the escalation of the civil war is having the opposite effect. India’s ‘Act East ‘ through Northeast will never work if Myanmar remains gripped by a festering civil war. So the continuity of military rule in Myanmar, through a sham election, does not augur well for India.
( Subir Bhaumik is a former BBC Bureau chief and Reuters correspondent in eastern and Northeastern India. He is author of well-acclaimed books on the Northeast and its neighborhood and a former fellow at Oxford and several leading western thinktanks. He worked for four years in Myanmar and as many in Bangladesh with leading local media groups).